Will Obama Run?
Senator Barack Obama’s (D-IL) announcement that he might consider a run for president in 2008 has been the equivalent of lobbing a hand grenade into the field of Democratic hopefuls for that office. Once written off as too inexperienced and too young to win, things have changed dramatically since he made his declaration six weeks ago.
At that time, there was Hillary Clinton, and then there was everyone else. Now, the field is full of anti-Hillarys; Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa, and Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana have already declared, and others such as Al Gore, John Kerry, John Edwards, Joe Biden, Christopher Dodd, and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico are all potential candidates.
All of these, however, were going on the assumption that one of them would emerge as an alternative to Sen. Clinton. Now, they may have another obstacle to overcome; somebody who is not Clinton and is already better known and/or liked than any of them.
But can Obama beat Clinton, who already has a prohibitive lead in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes? Experts say that it can be done, because Mrs. Clinton is such a polarizing figure in American politics: people either love her or hate her, and large voting blocs–crucial to election–come down on the “hate” side.
And what about the Republicans? Can Obama defeat the most popular candidates in the opposing party? At this point, former NY City mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain are the front runners, and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are also often mentioned as top candidates. But the top gun in the GOP, should she change her mind and make a run for the office, is probably Condoleezza Rice. Polls have shown her crushing any Republican opposition, including McCain and Giuliani, should she choose to do so.
If Democratic leadership thinks Obama cannot defeat the opposing party in a general election, he will not be selected as their candidate no matter how popular he is, but rather saved for a more opportune time–as a political investment for the future.
There are 2 Comments to "Will Obama Run?"
Great post, thank you. I’ve written about a possible Bloomberg ’08 candidacy on my blog at http://www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com. I think with his money and smarts–along with the country’s yearning for another alternative to the two party system, it might just work for him.
Bloomberg has a chance to make an impact–who wouldn’t with all that money–but I doubt if a third-party candidate can win the presidency. Personally, I would like to see it happen, but no third party has won the presidency since 1860.
Perot, by the way, was not a COMPLETE fool; the “giant sucking noise” he predicted has come to pass.