Professor Peter Morici, a former chief economist
Professor Peter Morici, a former chief economist
Professor Peter Morici is a recognized expert on economic policy and international economics. Prior to joining the university, he served as director of the Office of Economics at the U.S. International Trade Commission. He is the author of 18 books and monographs and has published widely in leading public policy and business journals including the Harvard Business Review and Foreign Policy. Morici has lectured and offered executive programs at more than 100 institutions including Columbia University, the Harvard Business School and Oxford University. His views are frequently featured on CNN, CBS, BBC, FOX, ABC, CNBC, NPR, NPB and national broadcast networks around the world.
His recent article in the Faculty Opinion is a very interesting read. He wrote:
January 9, 2009
Economy Loses 524, 000 Jobs in November
The Economy Is in a Depression
Today, the Labor Department reported the economy lost 524,000 payroll jobs in December, and average employment was 1.3 million lower in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. The economy is the jaws of a depression.
The economy has shed 2.6 million jobs since December 2007, as the full weight of the banking crisis, trade deficit with China and burdens imposed by high-priced imported oil are bearing down on manufacturing, construction and the broader economy with unrelenting pressure.
Unemployment increased to 7.2 percent in December; however, factoring in discouraged workers, unemployment is closer to 9.4 percent. Add workers in part time positions that cannot find full time employment and the hidden unemployment rate is 14.5 percent.
Recession or Depression?
The economy contracted at about five percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. The real question is whether the economy is in a recession or depression?
Recessions are like stock market corrections—after a time, equity prices rebound without government intervention. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and stimulus tax rebates and spending have shortened the lives and eased the impact of post-World War II recessions, but those policies did not end them. The economy self corrected.
A depression is not self-correcting. Roosevelt Administration stimulus packages—huge deficit spending—eased the pain but failed to end the Great Depression. Roosevelt’s policies did not put the U.S. economy on a sustainable growth path, because New Deal policies worsened structural problems that pulled the economy down in the first place. For example, the New Deal proliferated monopoly pricing, extended the life of undersized farms, raised structural savings rates, and created a system of home lending too dependent on federally sponsored banks.
The challenges facing President-elect Barack Obama could not be clearer. The current economic slowdown has two structural causes—bad management practices at the large money center banks and the huge foreign trade deficit. These problems are not self-correcting.
The economy will not recover without fundamental changes in banking and trade policy. A large stimulus package, though necessary, will only give the economy a temporary lift but then unemployment will rise again and continue at unacceptable levels indefinitely without successively larger stimulus packages and huge federal budget deficits. The economy is a depression, not a recession
To accomplish lasting prosperity, President-elect Obama will have to fix the banks and the trade deficit. Obama must ensure that the banks use the trillions of dollars in federal bailout assistance to renegotiate mortgages and make new loans to worthy homebuyers and businesses. Obama must make certain that banks do not continue to squander federal largess by padding executive bonuses, acquiring other banks and pursuing new high-return, high-risk lines of businesses in merger activity, carbon trading and complex derivatives.
Industry leaders like Citigroup have announced plans to move in those directions. Many of these bankers enjoyed influence in and contributed generously to the Obama campaign. Now it remains to be seen if a President Obama can stand up to these same bankers and persuade or compel them to act responsibly.
In addition, Obama must address the huge cost of imported oil and trade deficit with China or any effort to resurrect the economy is doomed to create massive foreign borrowing, another round of excessive consumer borrowing, and a second banking crisis that the Treasury and Federal Reserve will not be able to reverse.
Ultimately, reducing the oil import bill will require higher mileage standards for automobiles and assistance to automakers to accelerate the build out of alternative, high mileage vehicles. Fixing trade with China will require a tax on dollar-yuan transactions if China continues to refuse to stop subsidizing dollar purchases of yuan to prop up its exports and shift Chinese unemployment to the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Near term, a stimulus package focused on infrastructure is critical for resuscitating growth. The recent round of tax rebate checks ended up in savings accounts or spent at the Wal-Mart on Chinese goods, and did little to create jobs or accelerate growth. Whereas projects to repair roads, rehabilitate schools and refurbish public buildings would create high-paying jobs at home and provide a legacy in capital improvements that assist growth now and in the future.
However, stimulus spending, alone, won’t fix what’s broke. It didn’t end the Great Depression. Japan has had a succession of stimulus spending over the last two decades and that has failed to restore its economic dynamism. Similarly, President-elect Obama’s massive stimulus package, alone, won’t fix the U.S. economy. He must also reach into the management of the banks, and dramatically reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil and the trade deficit with China. The alternative is economic stagnation or worse, a long and deepening depression.
Without fixing the banks, energy and trade with China, the stimulus package will give the economy a temporary lift, but then unemployment will rise again. The economy would then require progressively larger stimulus packages, and foreign borrowing to finance them, to keep Americans employed. Eventually, the foreign line of credit would run out, and widespread unemployment, depression and economic decline would follow.
Wages and Unemployment
In December, wages rose a modest 5 cents per hour, or 0.3 percent. Wage pressures pose little threat to accelerate inflation.
The unemployment rate was 7.2 percent in December, up from 6.8 percent in November. However, these numbers belie more fundamental weakness in the job market. Discouraged by a sluggish job market, many more adults are sitting on the sidelines, neither working nor looking for work, than when George Bush took the helm. Factoring in discouraged workers, who have left the workforce, and those forced into part time employment owing to the lack of full time work, the unemployment rate is about 14.5 percent.
During the presidential campaign, declining real wages and fewer adults working gave Barack Obama’s proposals to redistribute income through the tax system a lot of traction. However, those policies will do little to correct the fundamental systemic problems that are destroying good jobs and squeezing middle class families, even if they would make them feel better for a little while.
Going forward, solutions that create better jobs will require cutting the trade deficit by at least half to substantially boost domestic manufacturing, solving the problems of the large money center banks to get mortgage money flowing and housing construction going again, and energy policies that more aggressively develop alternative fuel sources, conserve oil, and open up new domestic fields for conventional oil and gas production. Reducing dependence on foreign oil requires doing all things environmentalists want us to do and all things environmentalists don’t want us to do.
Politically correct promises to create millions of new jobs producing alternative fuels makes effective presidential campaign slogans, but realistic policies for governing require aggressive development of more conventional oil and gas, as well as nonconventional energy sources, and efforts to improve the energy efficiency of personal transportation.
If the Democrats are not willing to drill for more oil off shore and take on the automobile industry’s resistance to significantly higher mileage vehicles, the U.S. economy will be even more indentured to Persian Gulf oil exporters at the end of President-elect Obama’s first term than it is today.
Finally, diplomacy has failed to redress the currency issue with China. If President Obama is not willing to take tough steps to redress the trade imbalance with China and reduce oil imports, together the Persian Gulf oil exporters and China’s sovereign wealth funds may be able to buy the New York stock exchange eight years from now. Americans, outside those working for the New York banks that facilitate this sellout, will find their best futures waiting on tables for Middle East and Chinese tourists.
Manufacturing, Construction and the Quality of Jobs
Going forward, the economy will add some jobs for college graduates with technical specialties in business, health care, education, and engineering. However, for high school graduates without specialized technical skills or training and for college graduates with only liberal arts diplomas, jobs offering good pay and benefits remain tough to find. For those workers, who compose about half the working population, the quality of jobs continues to spiral downward.
Historically, manufacturing and construction offered workers with only a high school education the best pay, benefits and opportunities for skill attainment and advancement. Troubles in these industries push ordinary workers into retailing, hospitality and other industries where pay often lags.
Construction employment fell by 101,000 in December. This is a terrible indicator for future GDP growth. Retailing shed 67,000 thousand jobs, and financial services lost 10,000 jobs.
Manufacturing lost 149,000 jobs, and over the last 105 months, manufacturing has shed more than 4.3 million jobs. The trade deficit with China and other Asia exporters are the major culprits.
The dollar is too strong against the Chinese yuan, Japanese yen and other Asian currencies. The Chinese government intervenes in foreign exchange markets to suppress the value of the yuan to gain competitive advantages for Chinese exports, and the yuan sets the pattern for other Asian currencies. Similarly, Beijing subsidizes fuel prices and increasingly requires U.S. manufacturers to make products in China to sell there.
Ending Chinese currency market manipulation and other mercantilist practices are critical to reducing the non-oil U.S. trade deficit, and instigating a recovery in U.S. employment in manufacturing and technology-intensive services that compete in trade. Neither President Bush nor Congressional leaders like Charles Rangel and Chuck Schumer have been willing to seriously challenge China on this issue, and Senators McCain and Obama appeared comfortable with continuing their approaches during the campaign.
Now President-elect Barack Obama must alter his position, and get behind a policy to reverse the trade imbalance with China, or preside over the wholesale destruction of many more U.S. manufacturing jobs. These losses have little to do with free trade based on comparative advantage. Instead, they deprive Americans of jobs in industries where they are truly internationally competitive.
In the end, without assertive steps to fix trade with China, as well as fix the banks and curtail oil imports, the Bush years will seem like a walk through the park compared to the real income losses Americans will suffer during the Obama years.
Instead, were the trade deficit cut in half and the banks fixed, manufacturing would recoup at least 2 million jobs, U.S. growth would exceed 3.5 percent a year. Real wages and domestic savings would climb, and the federal government would receive more revenues to balance its budget or address other pressing domestic needs.
The choices for the new president are simple. It’s either recovery or depression. Fix the banks, trade with China and energy policy or become America’s Nero.
For more articles of the pending 2009 year:
Articles by Prof. Peter Morici: 2009
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This was sent to many other senators and congressmen before the bailout was completed.
The numbers in this letter are merely an example.
With the congress and U. S. Treasury Secretary Paulson about to put at least 700 Billion into saving the economy, it is important to let them know that we have a better way.
Now imagine the US Government taking 1 trillion 50 billion dollars (only 350 billion more than they are thinking of using right now and some analysts are saying it will be over a trillion anyway) and using it as follows:
They would give each state 21 billion dollars of which the 20 billion would be split up amongst all of the banks in the state equally. The banks would then loan out this 20 billion dollars at 9% or 12% for mortgages. credit cards, new businesses, and other types of loans. At the end of each year the yield on this one time government investment would be 1.8 to 2.4 billion dollars of which 1 billion would be set aside to put back into new loans. The remaining amount would be profit.
Now the 1 billion out of the original 21 billion could be used to pay off the bad investments that the government is thinking of bailing out right now. In addition to this the profit each year could also be used to pay off some these bad investments. This is a gift that just keeps on giving, both in businesses and with the government.
Of course it is possible for the government to take the money back after one year and be paid back 100% but it make more sense for them to leave it there for at least 2 or 3 years. It is even possible to leave it indefinitely and have the banks pay the government back at 3% or more per year. The credit card industry could be revamped as follows: See 2009 A New Worldwide Bank and Credit Card 01-24-09 Idea
I had originally thought that the money should be given to the banks, but after seeing the way the money was distributed to certain banks with no regulation, I believe this should be given to one of the banks the government has taken over or an entity created just to fix the economy. The later would be better because now you don’t have to be concerned with profit. The new entity would use every penny earned from the credit products to put back into more credit products. And or paying for government spending, a new way to give tax cuts. Either way there would have to be steep regulations for this project.
The beauty of this concept is that it can be applied to anything. For example let’s say the Target Corporation wanted to open several stores in 2009 worldwide. In this example we will use easy round numbers to show how it works. Now suppose each store costs 1 million dollars, so Target puts 2.1 Billion dollars into its bank in a CD or Savings Account paying at least 5%. For 2009 they would use the 100 million dollars to open 100 stores. The 2 Billion dollars would earn at least 100 million in interest during the year. Now at the beginning of the next year, they would have another 100 million dollars to use. They could open up 100 more stores or the could use the money for others things like adding more products to their stores, advertising, hiring more employees, raises for current employees, research and development, charity, payroll (imagine not having this as expense ever again, companies could put whatever amount into one of these accounts to cover their entire payroll, it would be a one time investment and every year the interest would be used to pay off this huge expense) or many other things. Now imagine if the bank gives them 6% or even 10%, this is a great way to cover expenses and to grow your company.
The auto industry could use this idea as well. If they set aside 2.1 billion in the say way, they could have 100 million dollars each year for things such as research and development (cars that use less oil and gas would be great), opening new locations, or even financing people who ordinarily do not qualify for car loans. They could also use it to pay for the costs of inventory. This would allow them use a much lower rate in financing because the cost of building the cars was covered with 100 million dollars.
Another great example how this concept could be used is health care. What if the government puts 210 billion into one of these accounts? Every year they would have 10 billion dollars to use for the health care system. Now imagine a state government using an account like this in lieu of a particular tax like property tax. Let’s say the state usually gets 4 billion in property taxes each year. Instead of taxing its citizens, it decides to put 80 billion into one of these accounts and each year the one time investment gives them the money they would have received from property taxes.
There are many ways to use this idea, but all of them help us tremendously. In addition to covering the costs of things for governments and companies, the money put into these accounts will be put there permanently; this gives the banks or credit unions much more money to use in new loans or credit products. Now let’s say a bank decides it wants to make it easier to gives start up companies funding, so they open one of these accounts with another bank.
Another interesting concept would be to have Iraq use their profits from producing more oil to research alternative sources of fuel and develop new cars that would not be dependant on oil or gas. By having Iraq do this they would be replacing the revenues from the oil with the new alternatives, and cars (experts could be sent to Iraq to help them to do this quickly) and they have enough oil reserves to fund the research. A side benefit to this is that they would also be producing more oil which would bring down the prices for oil and gas worldwide and put them in good standing with the world. In addition to this Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, China, Russia, and others would do the same to compete with Iraq in this area, which would further drive down prices and speed up technologies. Iraqi businesses could also use their oil to invest in real estate all over the world. They could also use it in my guaranteed investment to buy into many businesses worldwide. They could invest in new technologies for health care, electronics, air planes, education, etc.
A national lottery could also be set up to help lower taxes, pay down the deficit, and fund programs that make a difference. This could also be used to as funding for the bail out or new challenges that arise.
My ideas are raw, and are open to any suggestions. Please help me to make my ideas viable, I have many more ideas and would like to use it to help the little guy worldwide.
Tom Woznick
952-446-6323
illmakusmile@gmail.com
• These are my feelings being expressed below; I am not making any claims as to how successful or unsuccessful they may be. I will leave it up to you to decide whether or not they have merit. If you can make changes that will make them viable, let me know. I am aware that you are the experts.
• I believe that one day Hawaii, Guam, and Saipan will be the central hub for all international trade and travel.
• We can make this happen now and profit greatly from it. This could be achieved by loaning money to import and export companies. Many distribution centers could be located there as well. Some new travel agencies could be opened by entrepreneurs there in many other countries. They could also be started with an affiliate program.
• As products come in from Asia, Africa or Europe they would stop in Saipan or Guam via ship. From there they can go to Hawaii or to the mainland (US) via ship or plane. Going out of the U.S. products would go through Hawaii via Saipan or Guam.
• Saipan is a U.S. Commonwealth; however trade is governed via the Northern Mariana Islands. Guam, of course, is a U.S. Territory. This is important because both governments would have fewer regulations, making it easier to work with them. As long as they can see it helping them they will work with us.
• Many companies are going into China. However, India, The Philippines, Viet Nam, South Korea, Singapore, and Japan are countries that can be trusted more than China and would be just as lucrative. Canada and Mexico should also be mentioned here.
• India & Viet Nam have many startup companies and so do other countries.
• Kuwait, Qatar, Turkey, and U.A.E. are countries in The Middle East to consider.
• South Africa, Nigeria, & many countries in Africa are eager & willing to do business.
• We could take a minimal interest into banks, credit card and mortgage companies in these areas and in many other countries as part of becoming a virtual internet bank. Investments in real estate and loans worldwide could also be possible.
• Start up companies, established businesses and the citizens of Iraq, Peru, Spain, etc. are hungry for change and opportunity. This could be very beneficial to us.
• We would have an internet only bank, saving millions on payroll and real estate and or rent (lease) expenses. Here are some potential products:
• A new credit card could be created that would charge 12% annually but would never go up. A simple one page application with no legalese would be used, making it easy for consumers to understand.
• The interest and any fees would be kept in a separate area that I will call buckets.
• Beat the credit card companies at this game and change the image of the industry. Not to mention a new beginning for many people.
• Credit Card Details:
• 12% annual percentage rate or 1% per month, never higher.
• 12 days grace period with no recourse, customer picks date
• Late fees, over the limit fees, cash advance fees = $12.00
• Any fees and the interest would be in a separate bucket.
• All fees and interest would be paid first, but would never increase the principle or put one over the limit.
• 4% of the principle could be the minimum payment due (negotiable).
• Example: John Doe has a $1000.00 initial limit, latest purchase makes his balance $1003.11
• His due date is May 8th & it is May 23rd so his payment would be $40.00 + $3.11 + $12.00 + $12.00 = $67.11 – he would pay the overage first then interest, then the over the limit & late fees.
• He chooses to pay his minimum payment of $40.00. We would deduct all fees and interest first. $40.00 – $37.11 [$10.00 (interest) + $3.11 + $12.00 + $12.00]. This would mean $2.89 would go to his principle.
• Notice the interest is taken first, followed by the overage, then fees. John would not be considered late if he pays on time next month. His new balance is $997.11
• Customers would pay mortgages and student loans with their credit cards or via an equity line or adding the amount due to their mortgage and or car loans.
• They could also make payments by applying for a ready line, personal loan, or with a direct deposit advance.
• Overdraft protection could also be applied to all of these products (if they are about to overdraft on a checking account or credit card, it could get added to one of their loans. Or the credit card overage be taken right out of their checking or savings, investments or CD’s)
• We would earn6%, 9% or 12% on our loans, mortgages, and lines. This would allow us to pay 3% for savings accounts and 6% on CD’s and investment products and bring in millions of new customers. Not even traditional banks are paying this, giving us great potential in the market. All of these products could be applied to businesses too.
• The CD’s and investment products would have no expiration dates and no penalties, once again providing a completely new concept to the market. To help insure investors would keep these products active we could offer an increase to 9% if they keep their money with us for 2 or more years (negotiable).
• This would allow those who do not have good credit or no credit to be given the opportunity to establish a good credit rating. We would be using our own credit rating based on their ability to pay and their history with us and not through the current corrupt system being used by others in the credit card industry.
• Direct Deposit with weekly pay could be offered, this would give us an awesome start in regard to payroll and tax services. We could offer all of these worldwide. The laws for banking, payroll and taxes in each country would need to be researched.
• More on this and how it would work can be explained later.
• We could start a worldwide internet business that only helps with starting and succeeding in a new business and international trade. They would be experts on each country’s laws and policies, therefore be an excellent resource for start ups and current businesses as well.
• My ideas are raw, and are open to any suggestions. Worst case scenario, my ideas could spark a conversation that would bring about real change. I do have more ideas but they deal mostly with other industries. Please let me know what you think either way as soon as possible.
• You can contact me by email or by cell.
• Cell: 952-446-6323 or Email: illmakusmile@gmail.com
Some of the background info:
With respect to the bad mortgages, car loans, home improvement loans, and credit cards from companies such as Indymac, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Countrywide, etc:
The debt for these could be forgiven by the government. Since they have gone bankrupt, been taken over by the government, or bought out by other companies, these loans and credit cards could simply be wiped out. No one loses out because they were bad loans and the companies that accepted them are out of business, taken over by the government or another company. So, the debt could be totally forgiven and a new real value would be allotted. An example: A $500,000.00 mortgage which when the house was built cost about $100,000.00 and was refinanced and assessed at a higher value year after year. Now, someone in 2002 buys it at $500,000.00 from the owner. The real value of the house should have been closer to $250,000.00 but John Doe buys it in an inflated market, The bottom to the real estate boom crashes in 2008 and he still owes $350.000.00. The government could say the real value is $250,000.00 and John has paid $150,000.00 on it, so his new mortgage will be $100,000.00 at a fixed rate of 6% (because he is getting a break he cannot refinance). The original owner who sold it to John has already received his money and can be left out of the ordeal. The company that holds the note could get a tax break, unless the original company who financed it was one of the companies that gave out bad loans. In this case, the value would drop to where it should be and John’s mortgage with the company who now owns the note would be rewritten at 6%.
The government could totally wipe out these bad loans with no benefit to the companies who currently hold them, or give them a tax break, or let them write it off. I do not think that companies like Citigroup, Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo who rescued these other companies should get too big of a tax break or tax write off, just because they bought out companies that were failing. They still gained many new locations, either banks or other companies nationwide and had gotten plenty of benefit from that. I of course can not make that final determination, but as one of the little guys, I think that is fair since they can still grow their company, they only loss is a larger profit. Another thought to consider here is some of the money used to buy these companies came from the bailout money, which means the taxpayers and not the banks. With that said, I will leave it up to government to make the right choice.
Another idea I have is to get the investors involved in fixing the housing market. Here is how I see this could be done. Suppose an investor buys a house that is in foreclosure and has $100,000.00 left to be paid off. The government lets the investor write off the entire purchase price. A third party organization matches this investor and someone looking to buy a house. The person buying the house needs only to qualify for the program and does not need to get financing in the traditional way. The buyer simply pays the investor $1000.00 a month for 100 months (8 years and 4 months). After he has paid it off, the house is his 100%. In this case the investor gets to write off the property when he purchases it and gets paid back over time 100%. To make this more appealing to investors, the government could allow the $1000.00 per month to be tax exempt. If the buyer is not able to make all of the payments until it is paid off, the ownership simply goes back to the investor. So let’s say in this case the buy makes 50 payments but is unable to continue to pay anymore. The investor now owns a house which only costs him $50,000.00 and can keep it or sell it for its current value. He could put it back into the program for someone else who would make 50 payments and would then own the house. The program may allow the investor to put it in back in the system for $100,000.00 or for its current value. All of the specifics could be worked out by the government. This will allow us to rescue many of the houses that were involved in the bad loans and also give some people, who ordinarily do not qualify for mortgages, a chance at getting a house. The third party organization would get some sort of set fee. Maybe 1 or 2 thousand and there would be no more closing costs. Once again, this is something that will be worked out by the government once the program is put together.
A lot of the car loans and credit cards could be handled in the same way. The debt from over inflated loans (my car loan is at 18%) and ridiculous credit card interest (When I went bankrupt many of my credit cards were over 20%. How is the little guy supposed to live when the credit card companies are allowed to do that), could be forgiven or re-evaluated at a descent percentage. Once again a tax credit or write off could be awarded to these companies. This would free up spending because many of the people struggling like me, could now afford to buy things again. History shows when the little guy has money they spend it and everyone gains from that. I believe my credit card idea and new loan strategies could help out significantly.
I think my credit card idea would help with many of the struggling people in the US and worldwide. It would increase spending, and if the government allows the payment to be taken pretax, it controls what a person can spend because they can not spend more then they make and it brings the percentage down to 12 which is 1% per month and is easy for consumers to understand. Even if the government does not allow the payment to be taken pretax, it is still a good idea that would save the little guy a lot of money and allow him or her to spend it, which history proves they will.
International banking could be set up online. Businesses in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Botswana, Peru Nigeria, Panama, Chile, Spain, Portugal, New Zealand, The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam (just some examples, any country can be involved) could bank in the same place and create trade amongst each other and maybe with China, America, England, etc or just within a network of countries they trust. Just imagine a start up company in Iran working with a start up company in Vietnam that creates a car that is not dependant on oil or gas. This is going to happen anyway but if a company in Iran did this they would replace the revenues that would be lost with decrease in demand for oil and because they were working with a company in Vietnam, no one in the region would question it. If they had been working with a company from the US or the UK there could be issues from the government or some other people in Iran. The world still gets a great new product, but in some small way, Iran moves closer to democracy.
Now imagine out of millions of entities attempting to cure diseases 50 or 100 of them start working together and just one disease is cured. This would get many others to see the cooperation in these efforts is crucial and a lot of good would come from it. Meanwhile some of the millions of companies supplying aid (monetary, medical, food, etc) to less fortunate countries see this and decide to work together. Then some companies worldwide start working together on technologies that benefits everyone.
I am may be a dreamer, but one person can make a difference. Martin Luther King, Abraham Lincoln, John Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, Bill Gates, Henry Ford, to name a few. Maybe Jimmy Carter will not be remembered for his presidency, but what he has done with Habitat for Humanity is truly amazing.
As always, I am not saying that my ideas are the answer, but maybe they will spark a conversation that leads to something which gets closer to the answer to just one of the many obstacles we now face.