5 Most Electable 10/07
This is an update of a list that I compiled earlier in the year; it reflects changes in the political wind since that time, and gives my current speculation on how things stand for the candidates.
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Hillary Clinton–The top Democratic contender and media darling has seperated herself so far from the pack in the national polls that she has virtually been nominated already. At least that is the common wisdom. She continues to have many second-guessers, though, and the race may not be so cut-and-dried as the pundits would have us believe. The frontrunner is an advocate for several disturbing policies, although her quick-witted responses and carefully crafted strategy have deflected most of them. She is pro-special interest, in favor of Executive power, and not convincingly anti-war. Her healthcare plan is a sham. Her power to attract independant voters is questionable, and Republicans hate her.
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Rudolph Giuliani–Has cemented his position at the top of the Republican leaderboard, although somewhat tenuously. The challengers also have problems. Rudy is too far to the left for the most socially conservative members of his party, but at least he comes across as the most intelligent candidate. He could seriously challenge Hillary Clinton were she the Democratic nominee, which seems likely. Others in his party would have more difficulty beating her in a general election.
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Barack Obama–Although his star power has slipped in recent months, he is still the best bet to overtake Hillary in the Democratic primary process. He is more progressive, more flexible, and represents a new beginning to many voters. He is also an inspirational public speaker.
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Mitt Romney–The best shot to overtake Rudy at this time, although his Mormon religion works against him with the Evangelical types who see their grip on the GOP slipping away. He also has a “finger in the wind” reputation, and I, for one, see him as an empty suit.
- John Edwards–Candidate continues to plug along even as his stock continues to fall. A lack of funding, because of his refusal to accept corporate contributions, has hurt him, and his recognizability has suffered. Nevertheless, Edwards has some of the most progressive ideas of any candidate, and his views on healthcare and the elimination of special-interest culture in Washington should only benefit the struggling middle class. As such, he has been vilified by the MSM as a far-left radical.
Conclusions–The Democrats should still win this election, but it would be foolish to count the Republican electoral machine out. If Rudy and Hillary are the nominees, it will be a very close-run contest.
Manfred’s Best Bet–Hillary Clinton
Manfred’s Best Recomendation–John Edwards
There are 2 Comments to "5 Most Electable 10/07"
Don’t quit your day job, your predicitions suck. Of course, you can take heart, most professional pundits, regardless of ideological orientation, are wrong more often than chance would lead you to assume; they are more wrong than if they picked their predicitions out of a hat. Odd, no?
Yeah, well, who could have predicted that it would be Obama and McCain last October? Or even a couple of months ago?
As you say, I did no worse than the pros. Maybe if I knew the “right” people, had the PC look, and spoke with a slick voice, I could make millions for spouting opinions about outcomes which I have not the foggiest ideas either.